By Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim
Some days back, Orji Uzor Kalu on Channels TV identified Kwankwaso to be their only headache in APC and a lot of people, especially those sympathetic to the NNPP course got their hopes high thinking Kwankwaso “has arrived”.
Well, I think it should be clear that Kalu’s narration doesn’t in any way mean Kwankwaso stands a chance at winning the presidency. The only thing he has been able to achieve is forcing the hands of the other political parties to yield Northern presidential flag bearers.
It wasn’t much of a problem for PDP because their zoning agreement is consistent with the prevailing calculations even though they decided to leave the contest open. As expected, a Northerner, Atiku Abubakar clinched the ticket.
For APC however, their zoning arrangement favors the South. And that’s the dilemma. Presenting a Southern candidate against 2 Northern candidates is synonymous to political suicide. So if APC wants to win, they must join the bandwagon and present a Northern candidate.
But that’s not even the problem. The problem is, Southerners are entitled to the presidential ticket of APC by virtue of their zoning agreement. Contravening this agreement even if it is for winning reasons comes with a lot of risks. Southern bigwigs, some of whom remain almost indispensable in the APC political calculation might go against the Northern ticket and the party by extension.
Hence, the party must find a balance and must consider the possibility of yielding the ticket to one of those Southerners whose withdrawal of support for the party holds the potential of shaking it to its roots or worse, rendering it a regional party as well and who has the political advantages and reach capable of challenging that of the PDP flagbearer — Tinubu.
But it is evident that major forces within the APC including the cabal in the presidency are against a Tinubu candidacy. So, if the Southern Bloc is truly committed to ensuring that the APC zoning agreement which favors the South prevails, they must learn a lesson or two from the just concluded PDP primary elections that saw to the emergence of Atiku Abubakar.
Political pundits have it that had it been Tambuwal had not pulled that stunt and withdraw from the race to support Atiku with all his political capital – delegates, it would have been a very uncertain scenario. Even while some believe Atiku would still have won, others believe the ground would have been extremely volatile and easily susceptible to a change in dynamics that could favor Wike.
If you take a close look at it, the Southern delegate voting bloc had a total of 372 votes. Atiku polled 371 after the withdrawal of Tambuwal from the race. And Wike polled 237. And this sparked questions regarding the genuineness of the resolve of the South as an entity to producing the next president.
Had all other Southern aspirants withdraw from the race to support one of them as a matter necessity and camaraderie and through the efforts of their State Governors and State party chairman had resolved to deliver all their votes in bloc, that aspirant would have polled 372 plus additional 44 Kano votes that allegedly went to Wike. But Tambuwal took the torch and played the wild card.
The APC southern bloc should learn from this. If indeed the clamor and commitment towards preserving the unwritten zoning agreement in APC which favors the south is genuine, they must invoke the strongest form of camaraderie and they must do it now.
They must come together to unconditionally demand a free and fair primary elections and they must, as from this minute start considering who to unanimously support and withdraw from the race for. All Southern APC aspirants must conform and become “Tambuwal” to one of them as he did to Atiku.
And they must do so by objectively appraising and comparing their individual strengths and dispassionately agreeing on who among them has the proven political arsenal to be able to face Atiku Abubakar in the general elections. Of course, this can only happen if they are not only genuinely committed to making sure the the zoning agreement in APC prevails but also to the possibility of ultimately winning the general elections.
We watch, as we continue to celebrate the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the PDP presidential flagbearer though.
Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim writes from Zaria.
